IMF: "GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2023".

Digital Report - immediate delivery to your email.

Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 206.

 

Contents:

1. Assumptions and Convention.

2. Further Information.

3. Data.

4. Preface.

5. Foreword.

6. Executive Summary.

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies.

A Rocky Recovery 

A Challenging Outlook

Downside Risks Dominate

Policy Priorities: Walking a Narrow Path

Box 1.1. House Prices: Coming off the Boil

Box 1.2. Monetary Policy: Speed of Transmission, Heterogeneity, and Asymmetries.

Box 1.3. Risk Assessment Surrounding the World Economic Outlook Baseline Projections.

Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Macroeconomic Impact of Declines in Fossil Fuel Extraction.

References.

Chapter 2. The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy.

Introduction.

Trends in Real Rates over the Long Term.

Measuring the Natural Rate.

Drivers of the Natural Rate.

The Outlook for the Natural Rate.

Policy Implications.

Conclusion.

Box 2.1. The Natural Rate of Interest and the Green Transition.

Box 2.2. Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Natural Interest Rate.

Box 2.3. Spillovers to Emerging Market and Developing Economies.

References.

Chapter 3. Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt.

Introduction.

Macroeconomic Drivers of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio.

Debt Restructuring and Its Effects.

Going Granular: Case Studies of Debt Restructuring.

Conclusions and Policy Implications.

Box 3.1. Market Reforms to Promote Growth and Debt Sustainability.

Box 3.2. Monetary and Fiscal Interactions.

References.

Chapter 4. Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Foreign Direct Investment.

Introduction.

Early Signs of FDI Fragmentation.

Which Host Countries Are More Vulnerable to FDI Relocation? 

FDI Spillovers to Host Countries.

A Model-Based Quantification of the Costs of FDI Fragmentation.

Policy Implications.

Box 4.1. Rising Trade Tensions.

Box 4.2. Balance Sheet Exposure to Fragmentation Risk.

Box 4.3. Geopolitical Tensions, Supply Chains, and Trade.

References.

Statistical Appendix.

Assumptions.

What’s New.

Data and Conventions.

Country Notes.

Classification of Countries.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification.

Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2022.

Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup.

Table C. European Union.

Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings.

Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, and Per Capita Income Classification.

Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods.

Table G. Key Data Documentation.

Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies.

List of Tables.

Output (Tables A1–A4).

Inflation (Tables A5–A7).

Financial Policies (Table A8).

Foreign Trade (Table A9).

Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12).

Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13).

Flow of Funds (Table A14).

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15).

World Economic Outlook Selected Topics 173 IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2023.

____________________________________________________________________________________________