GLOBAL ECONOMY

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 133.

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Contents:

1. Executive Summary.

2. The Happiness Agenda: The Next 10 Years.

3. World Happiness, Trust, and Social Connections in Times of Crisis.

4. Well-being and State Effectiveness. 

5. Doing Good and Feeling Good: Relationships between Altruism and Well-being for Altruists, Beneficiaries, and Observers.

6. Well-being Measurement with Social Media Across Space, Time and Cultures: Three Generations of Progress.

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Digital Report - immediate delivery to your email.

Date of Publishing: 2024.
No. of Pages: 129.

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Contents:

1. Happiness and Age: Summary.
   Helliwell, Layard, Sachs, De Neve, Aknin, and Wang
2. Happiness of the Younger, the Older, and Those In Between.
   Helliwell, Huang, Shiplett, and Wang
3. Child and Adolescent Well-Being:
   Global Trends, Challenges and Opportunities.
   Marquez, Taylor, Boyle, Zhou, and De Neve
4. Supporting the Well-being of an Aging Global Population: Associations between Well-being and Dementia.
   Britton, Hill, and Willroth
5. Differences in Life Satisfaction Among Older Adults in India.                                          Paul, Pai, Thalil, and Srivastava __________________________________________________________________________________________

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Date of Publishing: 2024.
No. of Pages: 12.

Contents:

1. HIGH RISKS HIGHLIGHT THE IMPORTANCE OF BOOSTING 
   RESILIENCE TO SHOCKS .
2. SECURING FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IS KEY.
3. RAISING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SHOULD BE PRIORITISED.
4. THE GOVERNMENT AIMS TO MEET CLIMATE GOALS, WHILE 
   ENSURING ENERGY SECURITY.
5. LIMITING DEMOGRAPHIC HEADWINDS REQUIRES 
   MULTIPRONGED REFORM.

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Date of Publishing: 2024.
No. of Pages: 124.

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Contents:

Chapter 1: Global Risks 2024: At a turning point.

1.1. The world in 2024.

1.2. The path to 2026.

1.3. False information.

1.4. Rise in conflict.

1.5. Economic uncertainty.

1.6. Looking ahead Endnotes.

Chapter 2: Global Risks 2034: Over the limit.

2.1. The world in 2034.

2.2 Structural forces.

2.3. A 3°C world 2.4 AI in charge.

2.5. The end of development?

2.6. Crime wave.

2.7. Preparing for the decade ahead Endnotes.

Chapter 3: Responding to global risks.

3.1. Localized strategies.

3.2. Breakthrough endeavors.

3.3 Collective actions.

3.4. Cross-border coordination.

3.5. Conclusion Endnotes.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 206.

 

Contents:

1. Assumptions and Convention.

2. Further Information.

3. Data.

4. Preface.

5. Foreword.

6. Executive Summary.

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies.

A Rocky Recovery 

A Challenging Outlook

Downside Risks Dominate

Policy Priorities: Walking a Narrow Path

Box 1.1. House Prices: Coming off the Boil

Box 1.2. Monetary Policy: Speed of Transmission, Heterogeneity, and Asymmetries.

Box 1.3. Risk Assessment Surrounding the World Economic Outlook Baseline Projections.

Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Macroeconomic Impact of Declines in Fossil Fuel Extraction.

References.

Chapter 2. The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy.

Introduction.

Trends in Real Rates over the Long Term.

Measuring the Natural Rate.

Drivers of the Natural Rate.

The Outlook for the Natural Rate.

Policy Implications.

Conclusion.

Box 2.1. The Natural Rate of Interest and the Green Transition.

Box 2.2. Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Natural Interest Rate.

Box 2.3. Spillovers to Emerging Market and Developing Economies.

References.

Chapter 3. Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt.

Introduction.

Macroeconomic Drivers of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio.

Debt Restructuring and Its Effects.

Going Granular: Case Studies of Debt Restructuring.

Conclusions and Policy Implications.

Box 3.1. Market Reforms to Promote Growth and Debt Sustainability.

Box 3.2. Monetary and Fiscal Interactions.

References.

Chapter 4. Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Foreign Direct Investment.

Introduction.

Early Signs of FDI Fragmentation.

Which Host Countries Are More Vulnerable to FDI Relocation? 

FDI Spillovers to Host Countries.

A Model-Based Quantification of the Costs of FDI Fragmentation.

Policy Implications.

Box 4.1. Rising Trade Tensions.

Box 4.2. Balance Sheet Exposure to Fragmentation Risk.

Box 4.3. Geopolitical Tensions, Supply Chains, and Trade.

References.

Statistical Appendix.

Assumptions.

What’s New.

Data and Conventions.

Country Notes.

Classification of Countries.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification.

Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2022.

Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup.

Table C. European Union.

Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings.

Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, and Per Capita Income Classification.

Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods.

Table G. Key Data Documentation.

Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies.

List of Tables.

Output (Tables A1–A4).

Inflation (Tables A5–A7).

Financial Policies (Table A8).

Foreign Trade (Table A9).

Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12).

Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13).

Flow of Funds (Table A14).

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15).

World Economic Outlook Selected Topics 173 IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2023.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 18.

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Contents:

1. A new geostrategic era.

2. The war in Ukraine.

3. China-Western Decoupling.

4. Geopolitical Swing States.

5. Focus on Economic Self-Sufficiency.

6. Hardening of Technology Blocks.

7. Energy Security Imperative.

8. Multispeed ESG Policies.

9. Inflation-Recession Paradox.

10. Food insecurity and Instability.

11. Latin America Left-Leaning Governments.

12. Market Themes and Business Impact.

13. Geostrategic Priorities.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 250.

As Africa’s population grows, creating more and better jobs for youth will be essential for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. This report, Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs, makes the case for putting digital technologies at the center of a good-jobs strategy for the continent. The report’s overview of current challenges establishes that, although Africa’s mobile internet availability has increased in recent years, its internet infrastructure and the quality of available services still lag behind other regions. Divides in the availability of quality digital services remain an issue in all countries, especially in remote and poorer subregions. Additionally, Africa lags behind other regions in the use of internet services. 

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Contents:

CHAPTER 1

Digital Technologies: Enablers of Technological Transformation for Jobs.

1.1. What are digital technologies?

1.2. Africa’s jobs and technology challenges.

1.3. Impacts of digital technology use on jobs and poverty.

1.4. Africa’s large internet uptake gap.

1.5. Data and knowledge gaps for future work.

CHAPTER 2

2.1. Enterprises: Creating Better Jobs for More People through Innovation.

2.2. Digital technology use by African enterprises.

2.3. COVID-19 and digital divides.

2.4. Drivers of enterprise use.

2.5. Technology policies for more and better firms.

CHAPTER 3

Households: Supporting Productive Use of DTs for Inclusive Economic Impact. 

3.1. Household internet use is low, uneven, but growing.

3.2. The COVID-19 paradox: Increased internet usage but widened digital divides.

3.3. Understanding constraints to household internet use.

3.4. A policy framework to transform use into inclusive impact.

CHAPTER 4

Digital and Data Infrastructure: Stimulating Greater Availability and Use through Policy and Regulatory Reforms.

4.1. Market challenges of internet connectivity: Affordability, use, and quality.

4.2. Affordability to increase use.

4.3. Availability to reduce digital divides.

4.4. Data infrastructure and regulation for affordability and willingness to use.

4.5. Looking ahead: Regional integration and climate transition.

4.6. Summary of key findings for more inclusive use. 

 

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Date of Publishing: December 2022.
No. of Pages: 22.

Air transport makes an important contribution to global economic development. The wider economic benefits of the industry reflect a combination of the rise in connectivity between countries and cities – enabling the flow of goods, people, capital, technology, and ideas – as well as the long-term trend decline in real air transport costs which underpins these flows. The impact of Covid-19 saw an abrupt and massive decline in connectivity in 2020, with the number of unique city pairs falling by 30% or more than 6,500 routes. The recovery since that time has been more subdued, as travel restrictions have gradually been removed and routes re-opened around the world. To date, domestic air connectivity has recovered to around 89% of its pre-COVID level and international connectivity is currently at around 68% of the level of 2019. The gap between the two is closing, reflecting the broader re-opening of international routes over the course of this year. Despite the observed recovery in the number of city pair routes, it is important to note that at least initially, the frequency on those routes is unlikely to be immediately restored to pre-pandemic levels. In other words, the return of capacity will lag the recovery in the absolute number of city-pair connections. 

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Contents:

1. The Big Picture.

2. Significant headwinds.

3. Oil.

4. Inflation.

5. Central banks.

6. The strength of the US dollar.

7. Recent Trends in Air Transport.

8. The Outlook for Air Transport.

9. Industry Financial Performance.

10. Underlying assumptions.

11. Consumers.

12. The wider economy.

13. Capital providers.

14. Labor.

15. Fuel.

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16. Regions.

17. Risks.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 170.

As we begin 2023, Africa’s development is threatened by multiple crises. This time is distinctly different from past episodes, first in the increased frequency of crises, as well as the persistence and deepening of climate and conflict crises. While in 2008/2009 Africa was able to use debt to weather the financial crisis, today, rapidly rising global interest rates and the absence of a well-functioning framework for comprehensive debt reduction and relief, threaten to cut access to international financial markets for many countries. Moreover, deglobalization trends could limit Africa’s ability to use international trade to drive growth.

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Contents:

1. ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND GROWTH: TACKLING MULTIPLE HEADWINDS.

1.1. Priority actions to address Africa’s economic recovery.

1.2. African economies and overlapping crises: How to respond to the rising global headwinds?

1.3. Staying the course: Strengthening fundamentals despite adversity.

1.4. Nigeria in 2023: Bridging the productivity gap and building economic resilience.

1.5. Africa’s sovereign finance toolbox: Building resilience for a sustainable future.

1.6. The banking sector as a partner in Africa’s recovery: A perspective from Ecobank Group.

1.7. Self-organizing Nigeria: The antifragile state.

1.8. In search of new ideas for Africa’s recovery: Sports and creative industries as game changers.

2. FOOD SECURITY: STRENGTHENING AFRICA’S FOOD SYSTEMS

2.1. Food security in Africa: Current efforts and challenges.

2.2. Securing Africa’s food sovereignty.

2.3. Getting rice right in Liberia.

2.4. Financing food systems resilience in Africa: A starting point for transformation.

2.5. Recurrent food crises underscore the need for food system transformation.

3. EDUCATION AND SKILLS: EQUIPPING A LABOR FORCE FOR THE FUTURE.

3.1. Strengthening education systems in Africa.

3.2. Educate to adapt, adapt to educate.

3.3. International education financing will make or break the SDGs.

3.4. Stem education in Africa: Risk and opportunity.

3.5. To prosper, Africa’s children and youth must learn.

3.6. Foundational skills for a more inclusive Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) in Africa.

3.7. Learning on the move: Resetting the agenda for education and learning in conflict-affected settings.

4. HEALTH: ASSURING HEALTH SECURITY FOR ALL.

4.1. Finishing the job on HIV/ AIDS.

4.2. Leveraging lessons from COVID-19 to build stronger health systems.

4.3. Confronting global inequalities to end HIV/AIDS.

4.4. Empowering frontline workers to develop and deliver health care solutions.

4.5. Ethiopia’s lessons from COVID-19.

4.6. Building Africa’s capacity for pandemic and epidemic intelligence.

4.7. Using information and communication technology to improve mental health in Africa.

5. GENDER: CLOSING THE EQUITY GAP. 

5.1. Why addressing gender inequality is central to tackling today’s polycrises.

5.2. Strengthening fiscal policy for gender equality systems.

5.3. Closing the gender gap through digital and social inclusion: The Togolese case.

5.4. COVID-19 shed light on the challenges facing Africa’s women: The recovery must bring them out of the shadows.

5.5. Equal power, faster progress: A recipe for Africa’s transformation.

5.6. Women and access to justice in Africa: Women cannot wait another 100 years.

6. CLIMATE CHANGE: ADAPTING TO A NEW NORMAL.

6.1. Turning political ambitions into concrete climate financing actions for Africa.

6.2. The charge due to custodians of the world’s lungs.

6.3. The case for climate financing.

6.4. Climate adaptation finance in Africa.

6.5. Gold mining, climate change, and Africa’s transition.

6.6. Global decarbonization: Industrial opportunities for Africa.

6.7. Managing the compounding debt and climate crises.

6.8. Africa’s Blue Economy can continue to deliver huge benefits to the continent.

7. AFRICA’S CITIES: REALIZING THE NEW URBAN AGENDA. 

7.1. Lagos: The challenges of managing a megacity.

7.2. Kisumu: A secondary city with grand ambition.

7.3. Urban economic development in Africa: A case study of Nairobi city.

7.4. Cape Town: Lessons from managing water scarcity.

7.5. Enhancing climate adaptation: The role of climate resilient housing in Africa’s cities.

7.6. How can cities create better jobs in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 96.

The health and economic aftereffects of the pandemic have quickly spiraled into compounding crises. Carbon emissions have climbed, as the postpandemic global economy fired back up. Food and energy have become weaponized by the war in Ukraine, sending inflation soaring to levels not seen in decades, globalizing a cost-of-living crisis and fueling social unrest. The resulting shift in monetary policy marks the end of an economic era defined by easy access to cheap debt and will have vast ramifications for governments, companies and individuals, widening inequality within and between countries. The 2023 edition of the Global Risks Report highlights the multiple areas where the world is at a critical inflection point. 

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Contents:

Chapter 1: Global Risks 2023: Today’s Crisis.

1.1. Current crises.

1.2. The path to 2025 Cost-of-living crisis Economic downturn Economic warfare Climate action hiatus Societal polarization.

1.3. Looking ahead Endnotes.

Chapter 2: Global Risks 2033: Tomorrow’s Catastrophes.

2.1. The world in 2033.

2.2. Natural ecosystems: past the point of no return.

2.3. Human health: perma-pandemics and chronic capacity challenges.

2.4. Human security: new weapons, new conflicts.

2.5. Digital rights: privacy in peril.

2.6. Economic stability: global debt distress Endnotes.

Chapter 3: Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures.

3.1. Anticipating “polycrises”.

3.2. Polycrisis: natural resources, climate and cooperation.

3.3. Four futures for 2030 Endnotes.

Chapter 4: Conclusion: is preparedness possible? Endnotes.

Appendix A – Technical Notes: Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023.

Appendix B – Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions.

4. Acknowledgements.

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Digital Report - immediate delivery to your email.

Date of Publishing: 2021.
No. of Pages:  4.

The green loan market aims to facilitate and support environmentally sustainable economic activity. The Green Loan Principles (GLP) have been developed by an experienced working party, consisting of representatives from leading financial institutions active in the global syndicated loan markets, with a view to promoting the development and integrity of the green loan product.

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Contents:

 1. Introduction.
 2. Green Loan Definition.
 3. Green Loan Principles – Core Components. 
 3.1. Use of Proceeds.
 3.2. Process for Project Evaluation and Selection.
 3.3. Management of Proceeds.
 3.4. Reporting.

 4. Review.

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