RETAIL & FASHION LUXURY

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Date of Publishing: 2021.
No. of Pages: 54.

Welcome to the tenth annual report on the global diamond industry, prepared by the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC) and Bain & Company. This year’s edition covers industry performance in 2019, effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and an update on consumer preferences and attitudes. We also assess potential recovery scenarios in 2021 and beyond. 

The report begins with key developments along the value chain, including industry trends that were accentuated or accelerated by the global pandemic. We review factors that influenced rough diamond production and sales, midstream performance, and global diamond jewelry demand in major markets. We updated our long-term outlook for the diamond industry through 2030. The 2030 supply-demand forecast
considers announced production plans, recent changes in mining operations, potential additional sources of supply, expected changes in global and regional macroeconomic parameters, and potential impacts from labgrown diamonds.

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Contents:

1. Note to readers.
2.  Recent developments in the diamond industry.
3. Cutting and polishing.
4. Diamond jewelry retail.
5. Key industry trends and effects of Covid-19.
6. Updated supply and demand model.

Figure 1. Revenues across the value chain trended downward in 2019 and 2020.
Figure 2. Covid-19 had major implications across the value chain, but repositioned the industry.
Figure 3. Profit margins were devastated across the value chain, except in the C&P segment.
Figure 4. Impacts of Covid-19 caused rough diamond sales to decline –33%.
Figure 5. In 2020, upstream inventories increased by ~17%, mostly driven by supply chain.
Figure 6: A slower decline of polished diamond prices vs. rough diamond prices supported stronger margins for the midstream.
Figure 7. Prices for higher-quality polished diamonds have outperformed lower-quality diamonds over the past two years.
Figure 8. Diamond production has been decreasing by ~5% since it peaked in 2017, with a drop of ~20% in 2020.
Figure 9. Production value decreased by ~30% in 2020, driven by declines in rough prices and production.
Figure 10. South Africa was the only country with increased diamond production in 2020.
Figure 11. Russia, Canada and Botswana had the biggest production decreases in 2020
Figure 12: Medium and large diamonds accounted for ~25% of production in carats but nearly 70%–80% in value in US dollars. 
Figure 13: Reduced sales activity in the first half of 2020 put significant pressure on profitability, which is expected to improve by year end.
Figure 14. Covid-19-related restrictions resulted in ~26% reduction of C&P activities globally, with India recovering the fastest.
Figure 15. In India, net imports of rough diamonds decreased by 27% in 2019 and 23% in 2020; recovery began in Q3 2020.
Figure 16. Due to a significant decrease in rough diamond sales, midstream inventories returned to some of the lowest levels in a decade.
Figure 17. Diamond financing continued to decrease, aligning with reduced activity levels in 2020.
Figure 18: Consumers delayed discretionary spending during the pandemic, but diamond jewelry retail was less affected than the personal luxury market.
Figure 19. After single-digit growth in recent years, the global diamond market was materially impacted by the pandemic and economic downturn in 2020.
Figure 20. Despite challenges in 2019 and the first half of 2020, key markets are showing signs of recovery.
Figure 21. After a significant drop at the start of 2020, key diamond jewelry markets demonstrated recovery trends in the second half of the year.
Figure 22. In 2020, diamond jewelry outpaced other jewelry segments due to the relatively strong performance of luxury jewelry in Asia.
Figure 23. Luxury bridal and luxury non-bridal diamond jewelry were the top-performing categories in the diamond jewelry market.
Figure 24. Covid-19 shaped and accelerated key diamond industry trends.
Figure 25. Covid-19 impacted diamond jewelry purchasing via lockdowns and an economic recession and stimulated changes in consumer behavior.
Figure 26. The current economic crisis is expected to be deeper than the one in 2009.
Figure 27. Interest in diamond jewelry dropped for three months, then reverted to 2019 levels in July.
Figure 28. Most consumers plan to spend the same amount or more on diamond jewelry when the pandemic ends.Figure 29: Diamond jewelry recovery is expected in the next two to four years, with the market returning to its pre-pandemic level in 2022 or 2023.Figure 30. Diamond jewelry recovery depends on the epidemiology of Covid-19, government actions and consumer behavior.Figure 31. E-commerce experienced a major boost in 2020.
Figure 32. Consumer shopping preferences are slowly shifting to online, however, specialized brand stores remain the most popular channels.
Figure 33. Consumers would buy diamond jewelry online from trustworthy brands that offer additional discounts.
Figure 34. Digital is part of the purchasing experience for more than half of buyers; only 25%–35% of younger consumers make in-store purchases without it.
Figure 35. Covid-19 accelerated the convergence of online and offline channels, forcing retailers to retool the customer engagement experience for the new normal.
Figure 36. The diamond industry’s sustainability agenda is set by multiple stakeholders: consumers, international organizations, investors and local communities.
Figure 37. Between 60% and 70% of younger generations consider sustainability when making a purchase decision.
Figure 38. When purchasing diamond jewelry, sustainability concerns could be a deal-breaker for consumers.
Figure 39. Fair working conditions, conflict-free products, the environment and carbon footprint are the most important sustainability factors for consumers.
Figure 40. Across the value chain, industry players focused on green energy, sustainable water consumption and biodiversity.
Figure 41. Social efforts are focused on traceability, human rights and local community support.
Figure 42. Lab-grown diamond capacity is increasing across the globe; current production is around 6 to 7 million carats. 
Figure 43. Retail price discounts for lab-grown diamonds vs. natural diamonds have slightly increased in the past year.
Figure 44. However, lab-grown diamonds still evoke mixed associations; most consumers deem them artificial and affordable.
Figure 45. Consumers across key markets do not see substantial differences in sustainability between lab-grown and natural diamonds.
Figure 46. The lab-grown segment is developing rapidly due to technological advancements and rising acceptance across the value chain.
Figure 47. “Diamond engagement ring” searches show stability despite downward-trending marriage rates; however, overall interest in “diamond jewelry” is declining.
Figure 48. In India and China, jewelry remains one of the most desirable presents.
Figure 49.  Self-purchase emerged as a top reason to buy diamond jewelry in the US and China.
Figure 50. Diamond marketing is becoming more sophisticated as retailers and other players address both traditional and emerging pressures.
Figure 51.  New marketing strategies should focus on intangible values and personalized communications.
Figure 52. Marketing spending in the diamond industry is around 1%–2% of retail sales and lags marketing efforts in other industries.
Figure 53.The Natural Diamond Council re-launched generic marketing efforts with new focused campaigns.
Figure 54. Marketing messages about exclusivity and rarity disproportionally resonate with consumers, while origin and sustainability trends are quite new.
Figure 55. A number of important recent trends will influence the whole value chain’s future.
Figure 56. Covid-19 impacted key markets in the short term, but the industry’s long-term macroeconomic and consumption outlooks remain positive.
Figure 57. Long-term scenarios for natural rough diamond demand and supply rely on key assumptions.
Figure 58. The long-term outlook for real global GDP and PDI is positive; both are expected to grow at 3% per year despite the Covid-19 recession.
Figure 59. Middle class and high-net-worth household growth in China and India will reinforce positive long-term demand.
Figure 60. Supply is expected to be almost flat over the next 10 years, with very few new projects coming online.
Figure 61. The supply-demand outlook is moderately optimistic.

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Date of Publishing: 2024
No. of Pages: 112

In 2024, the industry is expected to bear the impact of fluctuations in demand that have punctuated the past few years.

Marketing is another area of focus. After years of relying on performance marketing, brand marketing may increasingly take centre stage in the year ahead.

AS consumers travel with renewed enthusiasm in the year ahead, fashion companies may need to revamp how they engage with consumers who are shopping abroad.

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Contents:

1. Industry Outlook.

2. Global Economy.

3. Consumer shifts.

3.1. Vacation mode.

3.2. The new face of influence.

3.3. Outdoors Reinvented.

4. Fashion System.

4.1. Gen AI's Creative Crossroad.

4.2. Fast fashion's power plays.

4.3. All eyes on brand.

4.4. Sustainability rules.

4.5. Bullwhip snaps back.

5. McKinsey Global Fashion Index.

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Digital Report - immediate delivery to your email.

Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 18.

Natural Fancy white and Fancy black diamonds are not routinely submitted to GIA for grading (fewer than 2,000 since 2008). These fancy-color diamonds are distinctive since the causes of color generally are not atomic-scale defects, but nanometer- to micrometer-sized inclusions that reduce the diamond’s transparency by scattering or absorbing light (some exceptions exist among Fancy black diamonds). To clarify, Fancy white diamonds are those rare stones colored by inclusions that give a “whitish” appearance, and are distinct from “colorless” diamonds on the D-to-Z scale. These two colors, often thought of as opposites in the color world, are grouped here as outliers within the colored diamond world. Both can be colored by inclusions so numerous the stone would fall below the I3 grade on the clarity scale, demonstrating that inclusions, often perceived as a negative quality factor, can create a distinctive appearance. Among the Fancy white diamonds examined for this study, the vast majority (82%) were type IaB, making them a rare subset of a rare diamond type. Based on prior geological research, these are surmised to be mostly sublithospheric in origin (i.e., forming more than 250 km below the earth’s surface). The Fancy white diamonds generally have a different chemistry from D-to-Z type IaB diamonds, with greater quantities of several hydrogen- and nickel-related defects. Among Fancy black diamonds, the major causes of color are either micrometer-sized dark crystal inclusions, nanometer-sized inclusions clustered into clouds, or a combination of the two. For these two colors of diamond, we summarize their gemological properties along with the absorption and luminescence spectra of a representative subset of diamonds from each color, examining how they deviate from the standard grading methodology. Because of their rarity, there has been very little systematic study of either of these color categories, and never a sample set of this quantity, which includes data for ~500 Fancy white and ~1,200 Fancy black diamonds.

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Contents:

1. Causes of Color.

2. Spectroscopy.

3. Gemological Observations.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 127.

Fashion companies will need to rethink their operations. Many will update their organizational structures, introducing new roles or elevating existing ones to target key growth opportunities and respond more effectively to risk. Brands may also choose to see the next year as a time to team up with manufacturing partners to sharpen their supply chain strategies. This may involve nearshoring to better respond to fast-shifting consumer demand or leaning more heavily on data analytics and technology to manage inventory efficiently.

Distribution channel mixes are also ripe for reassessment. As e-commerce growth normalises after its pandemic boom, the sheen has started to wear off the direct-to-consumer digital model that propelled many brands over the past decade. As lockdown restrictions lifted, shoppers have made it clear that although they still value online channels — particularly within luxury, where online DTC and third-party platforms will continue to drive growth — shoppers also want brick-and-mortar experiences. Brands will also need to factor in the continued return of international travel to pre-pandemic rates, which will be buoyed by a strong US dollar. Wholesale and physical retail have a new role in revamping customer journeys, requiring brands to look beyond tier-one cities to be physically closer to consumers.

Brands will have to work hard to remain attractive to consumers, given the tough economic environment. Consumer behaviours in 2023 will depend greatly on household incomes. While higher-income households will be less affected by economic pressures and look likely to continue shopping for luxury goods, as in previous downturns, lower-income households will likely cut back or even eliminate discretionary spending, including apparel.

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Contents:

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.

2. INDUSTRY OUTLOOK.

3. GLOBAL ECONOMY.

3.1. Global Fragility Managing Inflation for Growth.

3.2. Regional Realities Chalhoub Group: Capturing Fashion’s Growth Potential in the Middle East.

4. CONSUMER SHIFTS. 

4.1. Two-Track Spending Tapestry: Connecting With Customers ‘Is Not Just About Price’.

4.2. Fluid Fashion How Gen-Z is Propelling Gender-Fluid Fashion.

4.3. Formalwear Reinvented Hugo Boss: Reclaiming the Formalwear Space.

5. FASHION SYSTEM.

5.1. DTC Reckoning Allbirds: Conquering the New Multi-Channel Landscape.

5.2. Tackling Greenwashing A New Approach to Scaling Innovative Materials Puma: Moving Sustainability Beyond Marketing.

5.3. Future-Proofing Manufacturing MAS Holdings: Deconstructing Supply Chain Risks, and Rewards.

5.4. Digital Marketing Reloaded How Web3 Is Shaking Up Digital Marketing.

5.5. Organization Overhaul.

6. MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX.

7. THE STATE OF LUXURY 2023.

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Date of Publishing: 2023.
No. of Pages: 16.

For colored diamonds, the aspect of color far outweighs the other “C’s” (clarity, cut, and carat weight) in the determination of value. Therefore, it is critical to understand the relationship of color appearances that affect color grades and descriptions. For most people, color is an intuitive response rather than a true knowledge of the systematic ordering of color appearances. Both, however, are crucial when the romance of color also becomes the business of color. GIA has developed this booklet of color reference charts to help the diamantaire, retailer, and consumer understand the ways in which diamond color appearances transition and relate. Color is described using three attributes: hue (the appearance of red, blue, green, or anything in between), tone (the relative lightness or darkness of a color), and saturation (the relative strength or weakness of a color). The color appearance of a gem is the result of a combination of these three attributes. By standardizing the organization of these three attributes, a color’s appearance can be located in color space. The manner in which GIA organizes color is reflected in the tone/saturation charts in this booklet. Understanding this organization will help the reader grasp the relationship of GIA’s color grades and descriptions.

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Contents:

1. Introduction.

2. Hue Circles.

2.1. Continuous.

2.2. Lighter Tone.

2.3. Darker Tone.

3. Diamond Color Reference Charts.

3.1. Yellow (Cooler). 

3.2. Yellow (Warmer).

3.3. Orange-Yellow.

3.4. Yellow-Orange.

3.5. Orangy Pink.

3.6. Pink.

3.7. Purplish Pink.

3.8. Blue.

3.9. Yellow-Green.

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Date of Publishing: February, 2022.
No. of Pages: 29.

Following rocky conditions in 2020, the diamond industry proved to be brilliant and resilient, and delivered a spectacular showing in 2021. Every sector of the diamond industry performed very well in 2021 and emerged from the Covid-19-induced crisis well-positioned for future growth. In 2020–21, the diamond industry invested heavily in technology to gain operational efficiency, create marketing and consumer experiences that attracted buyers, and accelerate e-commerce schemes. Even smaller mom-and-pop retailers added online sales platforms to reach consumers who couldn’t shop in person or travel due to government-instituted health measures.

And consumers were ready to spend. They were flush with cash from buoyant capital markets and economic stimulus programs, and eager to spend it on meaningful gifts for their loved ones (or rewards for themselves). Diamonds hit an emotional chord, which had been carefully cultivated by years of targeted marketing campaigns and storytelling. Diamond jewelry was also easier to access than other luxury and experience-based spending options.

Strong retail demand for diamond jewelry drove up prices and profit margins along the value chain. As rough diamond sales increased, miners increased production volumes and pulled from inventories to keep cutters and polishers busy. Healthy demand and price recovery for polished diamonds helped the midstream achieve decade-high margins.

In 2021, the industry had a renewed sense of value, which it answered through partnerships, consolidation, and technology. Now, every player along the value chain must add value—or remove hardship—on the path from mine to market.

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Contents:

1. Foreword.
2. Recent developments in the diamond industry.
3. Rough diamond production.
4. Cutting and polishing. 
5. Diamond jewelry retail. 
6. Midterm forecast.

Figure 1: Across the value chain, revenues recovered in 2021 and exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

Figure 2: Profit margins recovered in every segment. Combined, the mining and retail segments generated $7 billion more in profit compared to 2020.

Figure 3: Rough diamond sales rebounded more than 60% in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

Figure 4: Rough and polished prices reached the historic average in 2021 but lagged behind industry peaks.

Figure 5: Prices for higher-quality polished diamonds continue to outperform lower-quality diamonds.

Figure 6: Production increased 5% in 2021 but is below pre-pandemic levels, limiting rough diamond supply.

Figure 7: Australia was the only major diamond-producing country with a production decline in 2021, driven by the permanent closure of its only mine.

Figure 8: Russia, Canada, and Botswana had the biggest production growth in 2021.

Figure 9: Upstream inventories declined ~40%, driven by high demand and slow production recovery, and are near the minimal technical level.

Figure 10: Major players almost fully recovered profitability in 2021.

Figure 11: As Covid-19 restrictions eased, cutting and polishing activities surged 84% globally; India grew fastest at 94%.

Figure 12: In India, net imports of rough diamonds increased 49% and net exports of polished diamonds rose 15% compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Figure 13: In 2021, consumer discretionary spending increased, boosting personal luxury and diamond jewelry sales.

Figure 14: The global diamond market was materially impacted by the pandemic and economic downturn in 2020 but recovered at double-digit rates in 2021.

Figure 15: Online searches of diamond jewelry were higher than pre-pandemic levels throughout the first nine months of the year.

Figure 16: Despite the downturn in 2020, key markets grew dramatically in 2021 and exceeded 2019 results.

Figure 18: In 2021, diamond jewelry outpaced most other jewelry segments, thanks to strong performances in Asia and the US.

Figure 19: In 2021, the share of e-commerce sales continued to grow in the US and China.

Figure 20: Large retailers experienced multiyear-high EBIT margins in H1 2021.

Figure 21: Several new drivers will influence the diamond market in the short- to midterm.

Figure 22: H1 2022 is expected to be strong; then two recovery scenarios are possible.

Figure 24: Players across the value chain should be prepared for short- and midterm market readjustments.

Figure 25: To sustain demand, diamond jewelry marketing must capture more Elements of Value.

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