SKOLKOVO (RUSSIA): "ARCTIC 2050. MAPPING THE FUTURE OF ARCTIC". IN ENGLISH.

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Date of Publishing: 2020.
No. of Pages: 100.
Language: English.

The Arctic region is going through a serious transformation as it faces the disruptive challenges of climate change and shifting global political, social and economic patterns. The harsh environmental conditions of the Arctic have long constrained economic activity in the region. The climate crisis, while having a negative impact on the region in some senses, opens up new prospects for development in others. The Arctic has become a geopolitical hot spot where global and regional players seek to increase their influence. Demographic shifts, transformative urbanisation and sustainable indigenous communities are at the core of regional social development.

Understanding the driving forces that will influence the business and political landscape of the Arctic in the coming decades is crucial for policymakers and businesses in order to come up with mutually beneficial approaches for exploiting opportunities without harming the unique Arctic natural and social ecosystem.

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Contents:
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.
2. INTRODUCTION.
3. ARCTIC TODAY ARCTIC-2050.
- CONCLUSIONS METHODOLOGY СASES REFERENCES REGIONAL LANDSCAPE.
     *CLIMATE CRISIS.
     *SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT.
     *DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES.
     *ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE ARCTIC REGION.
     *TECHNOLOGIES AND INNOVATION.
     *GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE.
     *INSTITUTIONAL ECOSYSTEM AND ENABLING ENVIRONMENT.
- STAKEHOLDERS AND DIVERSE INTERESTS.
4. SCENARIOS:
- SCENARIO 1. DARK AGES.
- SCENARIO 2. AGE OF DISCOVERY.
- SCENARIO 3. ROMANTICISM.
- SCENARIO 4. RENAISSANCE.
- TRIPLE-BOTTOM LINE IMPLICATIONS.
5. CONCLUSIONS.
6. METHODOLOGY.
7. СASES:
- ROSATOM (ICEBREAKERS).
- METHANOL MARINE FUEL (METHANEX).
- NORTHERN SEA ROUTE.
- LNG: LOCAL FUEL FOR GLOBAL NEEDS.
- ARCTIC CITIES.
- ARCTIC CONNECTIVITY.
- ARCTIC INDIGENOUS PEOPLES.
- MINING IN THE ARCTIC.
- AIRSHIPS FOR ARCTIC.
- CREATIVE INDUSTRIES.
8. REFERENCES.

FIGURE 1: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TREND.
FIGURE 2: PERMAFROST IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
FIGURE 3: THE LEVEL OF URBANIZATION OF ARCTIC REGIONS BY COUNTRY, %.
FIGURE 4: INDIGENOUS AND NON-INDIGENOUS POPULATION IN THE ARCTIC.
FIGURE 5: SHARES OF THE ARCTIC STATES, BY LAND AREA, POPULATION AND GRP, 2012.
FIGURE 6: GVA IN CURRENT PPP IN 2016.

 

BOX 1: DECLINE OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC POPULATION.
BOX 2: NEW CULTURAL COMMUNITIES IN THE ARCTIC.
BOX 3: CARBON FOOTPRINT OF LNG PRODUCTION.
BOX 4: FIELDS OF TECHNOLOGIES APPLIED FOR ARCTIC REGION.
BOX 5: MAJOR STAGES OF ARCTIC GEOPOLITICS.
BOX 6: MILITARIZATION IN THE ARCTIC.
BOX 7: STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ARCTIC REGION.
BOX 8: MAP OF KEY FACTORS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SHAPE THE ARCTIC REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
BOX 9: CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES.
BOX 10: BLACK SWANS EVENTS.
BOX 11: SCENARIOS MATRIX.
BOX 12: REGIONAL TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE PERFORMANCE UNDER EACH SCENARIO.
BOX 13: SCENARIOS BUILDING PROCESS.
BOX 14: MAIN GLOBAL TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON NSR DEVELOPMENT.

MAP 1: ARCTIC INDIGENOUS PEOPLES BY LANGUAGE GROUP.

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